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本篇出處 國立金門大學學報 5:2 2015.09[民104.09] 頁13-35
篇名 金馬地區「小三通」對人口數變化影響之研究
作者 紀博棟
中文摘要   金馬「小三通」實施與人口數變化是一個值得研究之問題。因此,本研究主要在實證研究途徑思維下,根據有關數據進行統計分析。此外,也針對兩岸關係發展與相關人口遷移理論,以及金馬地區在「小三通」實施前後,人口數等變化情形,進行有關論述分析。而兩岸政經關係未來發展較可能朝向進一步和平交流方向,此對於金馬「小三通」持續實施提供了有利依據基礎。且人口遷移流動有關理論,也都非常適合解釋金馬之人口遷移流動現象。研究發現,包括在統計趨勢圓形上,金馬在1992年1月至2013年9月期間設籍人口數其向上趨勢,但金門表現出較強之遞增趨勢。而金門「小三通」實施後8個月起,可能對於金門設籍人口數發生顯著性地改變影響。且馬祖「小三通」實施,也可能對於馬祖設籍人口數發生顯著性地改變影響,而在2001年1月前後產生重大結構關鍵改變。建議有關單位重視與持續實施「小三通」政策,以維持人民對於金門與馬祖「設籍或居住」之吸引力,繁榮地方經濟發展。
英文摘要   It is important to study the influences of the "Mini-three-links" over the Changes in the Population in Kinmen and Matsu. This research adopts the positivist approach and uses statistical methods to analyze the research problems. In addition, this study also conducts discourse analysis of the development theories of cross-strait relations, the related theories of population migration, and problems of the "Mini-three-links". The future development of cross-strait political and economic relations will lead to more peaceful interactions. This is the advantage of "Mini-three-links" in Kinmen and Matsu. And the theories of migration are also suitable to explain the phenomenon of migration flows in Kinmen and Matsu. This study also suggests that the population in Kinmen and Matsu between January 1992 and September 2013 also demonstrated upward tendencies. But Kinmen demonstrated a stronger increasing trend than that in Matsu. And because Kinmen implemented the "Mini-three-links" for eight months, it may have significant population changes. In addition, significant population changes occurred in January 2001 in Matsu after the "Mini-three-links" was implemented. For the increasing population of Kinmen and Matsu, the authorities concerned must pay attention and continue the policy of "Mini-three-links" for the economic development.